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Florida, Alachua

Freeze Warning

Statement as of 2:10 AM EST on November 21, 2008

Expires 8:00 AM EST on November 22, 2008


... Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am EST
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am EST
Saturday. The freeze watch is no longer in effect.

Minimum temperatures will bottom out in the upper 20s early
Saturday morning with durations of 4 to 7 hours of sub-freezing
temperatures expected. Lows in the mid 20s will be possible in
normally colder locations but a widespread hard freeze is not
expected.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
expected for at least 2 hours. Appropriate action should be
taken to ensure tender vegetation... outdoor pets... and exposed
water pipes have adequate protection from the cold temperatures.
Young children... the elderly and the homeless are especially
vulnerable to the cold. Take measures to protect them.





Fire Weather Warning, Fire Weather Watch

Statement as of 5:19 AM EST on November 21, 2008

Expires 5:00 PM EST on November 22, 2008


... Red flag warning in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM this
afternoon...
... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Saturday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a red
flag warning... which is in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM
this afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued from
late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.

For today... dry air and breezy conditions behind a cold front
will produce red flag conditions across most of the area. Relative
humidity values will drop to around 25 percent with durations
below 35 percent for around 6 hours. In additions... winds will
increase to 20 mph with higher gusts.

For Saturday... continued dry air will allow relative humidity
values to drop below 35 percent for 5 to 7 hours.

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now... or will shortly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.






Public Information Statement

Statement as of 7:03 AM EST on November 21, 2008


... Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia winter outlook 2008-09...

The climate prediction center's official forecast for the 2008-09
winter season (december 2008 through February 2009) is for equal
chances of above or below normal average temperatures and for below
normal precipitation across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

One of the key patterns that is monitored to determine the character
of the winter season is the phase of the El Nino-southern
oscillation, or enso. The presence of a strong El Nino (or la nina)
correlates with higher (lower) probabilities of wetter (drier) than
normal winter conditions across the southeast United States.

This year however... enso neutral conditions are expected to continue
through the winter season. In this environment other large scale
atmospheric patterns such as the North Atlantic oscillation (nao)
and Arctic oscillation (ao) play a larger role in influencing storm
tracks. Patterns such as these occur over shorter time scales, which
makes them difficult to predict over the course of an entire season.

Since the combination of these atmospheric patterns will ultimately
determine the character of our winter, their unpredictability beyond
just a few days means that there remains uncertainty regarding the
frequency, timing and magnitude of temperature extremes and
precipitation this winter season. Also, since these other patterns
can change quickly, enso-neutral Winters are often characterized by
great variability in temperature and precipitation within the season.

Extrapolation of fall trends indicate that the first part of the
winter season may be characterized by a negative phase of the nao,
with the pattern trending more to the positive phase sometime in
January. A negative nao correlates with colder weather for southeast
Georgia and northeast Florida... so if this were to occur, we would
expect temperatures for much of December to average below normal,
with a switch to an overall warmer regime during January into
February. A consequence of this variability is that for the entire
winter... these swings would result in overall temperatures for the
season averaging near normal... with equal chances that they could be
somewhat either above or below the long term normals depending on
the length and magnitude of the warm and cold periods.

Climate studies conducted by the National Weather Service office in
Jacksonville revealed that southeast Georgia and northeast Florida
experience the most freeze and hard freeze events when there is not
a strong El Nino or strong La Nina signal. Also, most of our extreme
precipitation patterns occur during strong El Nino (wet) or strong
La Nina (dry) seasons. Historically there tends to be little
departure from normal during weak enso and neutral phases.

The last 10 years have seen a trend toward drier Winters in our area
overall. Combined with a neutral enso event and the expected
configuration of other atmospheric patterns... we would expect this
Winters precipitation to be somewhat below normal.


Weather Severe Map
Alabama - Fire Weather Warning , Fire Weather Watch
Arizona - Special Weather Statement , Record Report
Arkansas - Freeze Warning , Public Information Statement
California - Fire Weather Warning , Special Weather Statement , Record Report
Colorado - Dense Fog Advisory , Public Information Statement
Delaware - Winter Weather Advisory , Special Weather Statement
District of Columbia - Public Information Statement
Florida - Freeze Warning , Freeze Watch , Fire Weather Warning, Fire Weather Watch , Fire Weather Warning , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Georgia - Wind Advisory , Lake Wind Advisory , Fire Weather Warning , Public Information Statement
Hawaii - Flash Flood Watch
Idaho - Winter Weather Advisory , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Illinois - Public Information Statement
Indiana - Lake Effect Snow Warning , Lake Effect Snow Advisory , Public Information Statement
Kansas - Public Information Statement
Kentucky - Winter Weather Advisory , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Louisiana - Freeze Watch, Lake Wind Advisory , Lake Wind Advisory , Freeze Watch
Maryland - Winter Storm Warning , Winter Weather Advisory , Special Weather Statement , Public Information Statement
Michigan - Lake Effect Snow Advisory , Lake Effect Snow Warning , Record Report
Mississippi - Public Information Statement
Missouri - Public Information Statement
Montana - Winter Weather Advisory , Public Information Statement
Nebraska - Public Information Statement
New Jersey - Winter Weather Advisory
New York - Lake Effect Snow Warning , Lake Effect Snow Advisory , Special Weather Statement , Public Information Statement
North Carolina - Wind Advisory , Lake Wind Advisory , Winter Storm Warning , Winter Weather Advisory , Special Weather Statement , Public Information Statement
North Dakota - Winter Weather Advisory
Ohio - Lake Effect Snow Warning , Winter Weather Advisory , Lake Effect Snow Advisory , Public Information Statement
Oklahoma - Freeze Warning
Oregon - Record Report
Pennsylvania - Lake Effect Snow Warning , Winter Storm Warning , Winter Weather Advisory , Public Information Statement
Puerto Rico - High Surf Advisory
South Carolina - Lake Wind Advisory , Fire Weather Warning
South Dakota -